Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
